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Oct 8 11

What do you do when a bear (market) is charging at you?

by Joe Grammer

Stress is sometimes a good thing. It motivates us to work hard for that vacation in the Virgin Islands and lets us know that walking around at night in a high-crime area is a no-no. But it can also affect the way we make financial decisions, and not always for the better. In one study, acute external stress made investors extra-risky where losses were concerned (i.e. people were much more likely to take a 20% chance of losing $3.00 than an 80% chance of losing $0.75).  The opposite is true for gains (i.e. people were much more likely to choose a 60% chance of winning $1.00 than a 40% chance of $1.50). This phenomenon is known as the reflection effect, and it is intensified under stress.

 

Stress impairs our executive functioning – it makes it harder for us to evaluate stimuli. When this happens, we often rely on established biases, like the reflection effect, for decision-making. This is perfectly normal and adaptive, as seen in the scenario of a person standing in front of an approaching bear. If a bear is sprinting towards us at full speed, we don’t have time to think about all the possible ways we could get away (across the river, up a tree, through the field). It makes a lot more sense for us to just think “RUN!” and take off in some direction, even if it would be objectively better to take one path over another. (Actually, depending on the bear, it may be safest to climb a tree or curl up in a ball.) Similarly, an investor under stress might take riskier bets that can result in large losses or park all savings in CDs for woefully meager returns.  Whatever the tendency, stress will propel us more strongly in that direction and thwart our intentions for diversified investments.

 

Reference: Porcelli and Delgado, 2009, in Psychological Science Vol 20, No. 3.

Joe Grammer works in a suicide prevention research lab at the National Naval Medical Base. At Community Ladders, he writes about psychology and how it relates to finance and consumer choices.

Oct 8 11

Fear and loathe the stock market? That’s your amygdala

by Joe Grammer

Love your amygdala. A recent study of people with lesions on this important brain structure showed that amygdala damage makes us less risk averse (i.e. riskier), especially in financial decision-making. Avoiding risk is one of the cornerstones of human neurological functioning, so it is in our best interest to keep our amygdala healthy. Luckily, lesions on this structure are rare. Alexithymia (that’s alexi-THY-mia), or a deficiency in processing emotion, is also associated with decreased risk aversion. People exhibiting alexithymia are inclined to gamble with more money than people with unimpaired emotional processing, so not only do they make risky bets, they also bet big. It does make sense that those who can’t understand their own emotions might be freer with their cash, since people do need to be able to evaluate how they feel about a loss in order to learn to avoid risk. As University of Iowa’s Antoine Bechara, a neurologist, says, “Regularly evaluating whether an outcome made you feel good or bad will help you learn from your behavior.”

What can we learn from this? Fear learning and emotional processing, both of which are linked to the amygdala, are beneficial to avoiding risk. But finances are not as simple as the decisions the  amygdala evolved to address. In a complex financial world, our brains’ defensive “gut instinct” rarely leads to optimal investment outcomes.

As you are reading this, you are probably thinking to yourself, “Hey, if my brain wants to be risk adverse, that’s probably a good thing overall.”  But, you are only thinking of risk in terms of losses – the brain also fears missed gains. On the one hand, you can have the fear of loss, which causes people to sell out near the bottom of a stock market crash. On the other, you have the fear of missing out, like when a person dumps money into an over-bought stock market with the expectation that stocks will keep rising.

Much like the effect of stress discussed in an adjacent article, fear tends to push us to investing extremes – either extreme conservatism or extreme risk. This is precisely why, at Community Ladders, we use diversified investment strategies that aren’t subject to buying and selling based on emotions.

References and Suggested Reading:

CNN Money – A good, short primer on your brain and investing

Financial Planning Association – A bit more in-depth look at your brain on investments.

And, if you miss your college psych class:

Bibby and Ferguson, 2011, in Personality and Individual Differences, Vol. 51.;

Martino et al., 2009, in PNAS, Vol 107, No. 8.

Joe Grammer works in a suicide prevention research lab at the National Naval Medical Base. At Community Ladders, he writes about psychology and how it relates to finance and consumer choices.

Oct 8 11

Why is Grandpa betting his retirement on black?

by Joe Grammer

Back in June, we covered the surprising phenomenon in which older investors tend to take greater risks than younger ones. Because it is so peculiar, we are revisiting the topic (and digging deeper) as part of our look at how our brains work when it comes to finances.

Young people are often stereotyped as loose with their money, but a recent study shows that the elderly might be riskier spenders. Older folks made fewer optimal choices on a financial investment task than did their younger counterparts, tending to choose a risky stock in situations where a bond would be smarter. In this task, the “rational, risk-neutral” investor will pick a stock if he or she expects the dividend to at least equal the bond earnings. There is a “good” stock (high probability of gain), a “bad” stock (high probability of loss), and a bond for every trial of the task. Choosing a risky stock when the bond is the best bet for a particular scenario is considered a risk-seeking choice, and it turned out that older participants made more of these choices. In fact, the older a person was, the more likely he or she was to pick a risky stock when it wasn’t the best time to do so. Eighty-year-olds were riskier than seventy-year-olds, who were riskier than sixty-year-olds. Surprisingly to some, the twenty-somethings were the most prudent in their financial decisions. Older and younger people did not differ on mistakes related to risk-avoidance (i.e. when they were over-cautious and chose the bond instead of a good stock), only on the risky side of things.

This risk-seeking behavior was linked with fMRI variability in a structure of the brain called the nucleus accumbens, which is involved in recognizing and pursuing rewards. It is possible that functioning of this structure (or some pathway involving this structure) worsens with age, making us more likely to jump at a hot stock when we really shouldn’t. Other research supports the notion that our brains vary more in functioning as we age, and that the neurotransmitter dopamine has something to do with financial daring in our golden years.

So, if you have older parents, perhaps it’s time to have a chat with them and see if they are invested appropriately for their age.  Or, refer them to Community Ladders and let us have that awkward conversation!

Reference:  Samanez-Larken, 2010, in Journal of Neuroscience, Vol 30, No 4.

Joe Grammer works in a suicide prevention research lab at the National Naval Medical Base. At Community Ladders, he writes about psychology and how it relates to finance and consumer choices.

Oct 8 11

Patterns are your friend…until they’re not

by Joe Grammer

You come from work. You’re tired. You grab a handful of mini-pizzas and throw them in the microwave for a nutritious, 21st-century dinner. When you open the microwave door, you expect to see hot, delightful mini-pizzas, which is what you’ve gotten every other time you microwaved mini-pizzas. Seems logical. It would be a bit strange if we put in mini-pizzas and took out boiled sheep brains instead.

Our brains have evolved to see patterns, anticipate them, and rely on them. Without such consistency, our worlds would more or less fall apart. We’d be completely overwhelmed by stimuli.  But this amazing processing ability, unfortunately, can sometimes tank our finances.

When we try to see patterns in situations where there simply are none (or where they are far more complex than our brains can handle), disaster may ensue. Just because the stock market is up one day, or ten, does not guarantee that it will continue to stay that way, but we tend to expect this. It’s not because we’re dumb – it’s really not. Our brains just crave consistency. This made perfect sense when the modern human brain first evolved some 50,000 years ago, but in today’s world of fancy finances, our love of patterns can lead us astray. A does not always lead to B. A might go to C and be influenced by D, leading to E or F. But our brains like to think A always goes to B. This is why, when we clean up the blackjack table for an hour, we think we’re invincible (even though we know, deep down, that we’re not). Unlike in blackjack, though, many people firmly believe they can beat the house (market). As we’ve discussed in early blog posts, the majority of investors do not beat the market average.

This search for a pattern can be seen broadly in how the small-time investor invests.  S/he buys when the market has been going up for a while (on the expectation that things are now ‘safe’ and prosperity will continue) and sells when the market is down significantly (on the expectation that it will get worse). As a result, like clockwork, the small-time investor consistently buys high and sells low, despite the fact that the fundamental goal of investing is to do the exact opposite.

This isn’t to say that trends don’t exist – they most certainly do.  But our brains’ “gut instinct” isn’t good at telling a real pattern from an imagined one.  And that, of course, is dangerous.

Joe Grammer works in a suicide prevention research lab at the National Naval Medical Base. At Community Ladders, he writes about psychology and how it relates to finance and consumer choices.

Oct 8 11

Anna Tulchinskaya shares her personal tips and strategies for creating positive patterns

by Anna Tulchinskaya

Hello, Community Ladders!

Although I would love to take this opportunity to talk about how super qualified I am to answer any and all of your design needs (wink, wink), I thought it might be nice to speak to you less as a designer and more as a fellow Community Ladders member who is trying her best to reach her financial goals.

In this issue of “The Ladder,” I really love the piece about your brain’s need to establish patterns. Establishing and breaking patterns has been one of the most challenging (and rewarding) aspects of my own journey in personal finance. Here are some of my lessons learned:

Tracking your own patterns is one of the best ways to get a wake-up call. For the longest time, I thought that as long as I wasn’t running out of money at the end of every month, I was doing just fine. Systematically tracking my spending helped me realize how wrong that assumption was. I realized that I had a few spending patterns that had simply gotten out of control, and this awareness sparked the motivation I needed to significantly improve my financial standing.

“If, then” patterns are extremely powerful. Establishing circumstantial “rules” can really help with evaluating decisions. In order to help myself limit spending to purchases I absolutely must make, I started thinking along the lines of, “IF I make this purchase, THEN I will add XX% of the purchase price to my regular student loan repayment.” Of course, I kept this rule in place only for non-essentials, but having a mechanism to make me think twice AND increase the apparent cost of each new purchase was a real kicker. Needless to say, this pattern helped me significantly cut down on extraneous spending!

Patterns are easier to stick to if they’re tied to a ritual. Do you have a ritual you keep to? Do you always grab a coffee at a certain Starbucks after work? Do all your Sundays begin with reading your favorite blogs over breakfast? Try making a good financial habit a part of a ritual that already exists. Maybe that Sunday blog fest can always end with an evaluation of your budget. Maybe every time you go to Starbucks you transfer $5 to your savings account. You’ll be much more likely to fall into a great financial habit (I hear it only takes 30 days to pick up a new one!).

Making results visual helps reward good patterns. I once heard of someone who collected enough small objects to represent every dollar of their debt; for every dollar repaid, they would throw away one of the objects. I appropriated this strategy by drawing erasable marks over a painting (yes, I did go to art school), and every time I did something that contributed to reaching the goal I had identified, I erased one of the marks. Having a visual reminder of how far I had to go until I reached my goal truly motivated me to get there faster.

I hope these tips help you establish a few good patterns yourself. In the meantime, please feel free to contact me if you need help brainstorming ways to incorporate these tips in your own life, to let me know how I’m doing with designing images for Community Ladders, or just to say hello. I can be reached by e-mail. You can also reach me through my blog, my498.wordpress.com.

Anna Tulchinskaya works at Bussolati Associates, a content strategy and design studio in Washington, DC.  As Community Ladders’ graphic designer, Anna completely overhauled our visual brand. All graphics in the newsletters, on blogs, and pretty much anything else we’ve produced in 2011, are Anna’s original work.

Sep 24 11

A Far Cry from a Unified Definition of SRI

by Alvin Carlos

You are finally filling out your 401k form to maximize that employer match that Bill told you about.  You check the box next to the Social Index Fund. You are concerned about the environment and public health, and it feels right that your retirement money is invested in socially responsible companies.

But look again! That social index fund you just chose actually owns McDonald’s, which you have an issue with because the company continues to advertise to children and get them hooked on unhealthy food.  Its third largest holding is JP Morgan Chase, a major player in pushing those nasty derivatives that amplified risk in our economy – a major contributing factor to the 2008 financial crisis. This is social responsibility?

Socially responsible investing is not a new phenomenon (though it certainly has become more popular as of late). The earliest proponents were institutional investors with religious affiliations that opposed holding companies involved with alcohol, tobacco, and gambling.  As time went by, socially conscious investors increasingly sought to incorporate women’s rights, labor issues, health, the environment, and indigenous peoples’ rights into their investments. Since then, a formidable list of environmental, social, and governance requirements (“ESG”) has emerged.

As of 2010, there were 250 socially screened mutual fund products in the U.S., each of them with their own screening criteria. Funds usually have negative screens.  Starting from, say, a universe of 3,000 companies, they screen out companies in certain industries (e.g. armaments, nuclear energy, and pharmaceuticals).  Some funds perform positive screens.  Starting with zero number of companies, they add those which demonstrate leadership in climate change, have strong labor codes, or have diverse independent boards. There are even funds dedicated to very specific niches, such as alternative energy or water.

However, many SRI funds have vague screening criteria, which can allow in some questionable companies.  The fund may say it invests in companies with over $10 billion in market capitalization with “environmentally sound policies.”  But what are those, and how rigid is their screening process?  Some funds say they “consider a company’s performance with respect to environmental responsibility, labor standards, and human rights,” but you’ll really need to dig to figure out what that means.

An SRI fund’s selection criteria may not match your ethical requirements. Value SRI funds, for instance, may take ESG factors into consideration during its investment process, but may nonetheless decide that the current market price of a stock is so undervalued that the potential out-performance significantly offsets the company’s poor corporate citizenship (fund managers, after all, are rewarded based on performance).  Another example, particularly appropriate during these times of fiscal crisis, is financial companies.  An SRI fund may include a particular bank because it provides a product that serves lower income individuals.  But what if that same bank’s subsidiary has been providing predatory loans to the same low-income group (this is actually quite a common scenario)?

The main point here is that you’ll want to examine closely the holdings of the SRI fund you are considering to be sure it truly meets your ethical criteria.  As we note in other blog posts, SRI investing entails some sacrifices, so it behooves you to make sure you are sacrificing for the reasons you intended.

Alvin Carlos oversees the finances of a social justice organization in Washington DC.  He is a Financial Adviser at Community Ladders. 

Tec Han manages investments for Clark Enterprises, the parent company of Clark Construction.  He is Director of Financial Planning and Training at Community Ladders. 

Sep 24 11

The Leading Purveyors of SRI Funds

by Alvin Carlos

There are over 250 SRI funds, but only a handful of major players. Note that we don’t comment on specific investments or fund companies publically, but we do have a short list of vetted SRI favorites we share with members. Here’s a brief guide to the most experienced firms and links to research them.

You’ve probably heard of Calvert Investments.  They’re one of the most popular fund companies that offer diverse options for socially responsible investing. They offer over 20 equity, bond, and balanced SRI mutual funds. By a clear margin, those Community Ladders members that have SRI investments are invested in Calvert funds (that preceded their joining Community Ladders). Bill, our Founder, cautions people to examine both the annual fees the funds charge as well as the loads (loads are a percentage of your investment, typically one to five percent, that the company takes either when you buy or sell shares). It is only in pursuit of appropriate SRI investments that Bill will even discuss funds with loads; outside of SRI, Community Ladders has never, ever recommended a fund with a load.

Pax World Funds offer seven equity and bond SRI funds, including a Global Women’s Equality Fund that assesses women’s representation on the companies’ board and senior management. Domini offers a domestic and international stock and a social bond fund.

Social Funds provide an exhaustive list of available SRI mutual funds.

There are only a few passively-managed SRI investments, such as the iShares KLD 400 Social Index or MSCI USA ESG Social Fund Index.  The longest-running SRI index is the FTSE KLD 400, which was started in 1990.  Vanguard’s FTSE Social Index fund is probably the lowest-cost passively-managed social index fund (see our blog post “Concerns about SRI funds” for some insight into this Vanguard fund, and for a discussion of active versus passive mutual funds).

Those interested in these investments will need to fully understand the selection methodology of these social funds, as the definition of what constitutes SRI varies widely.

 

Community Investing is the latest SRI offering in the market. Community investing institutions use investor capital to provide loans to individuals and organizations that do not have access to credit. These loans are used for housing, small business creation, or education.  With Microplace, you can invest as little as $20, and can choose your preferred financial return (usually between 1-3%) and length of the loan. Examples of loans include those that support fair trade farmers in Costa Rica, or help small entrepreneurs in rural Texas.

 

For those who are passionate about these issues, it can be very exciting to know that you are able to both save for your retirement and invest in companies that you believe in.  But before you go shopping in the SRI funds market, you need to know the drawbacks associated with them. Please see our “Concerns about SRI funds” and “Alternative Approaches to Socially Responsible Investing” blog entries for more information.

 

Alvin Carlos oversees the finances of a social justice organization in Washington DC.  He is a Financial Adviser at Community Ladders. 

Tec Han manages investments for Clark Enterprises, the parent company of Clark Construction.  He is Director of Financial Planning and Training at Community Ladders. 

Sep 24 11

Concerns About SRI Funds

by Tec Han

While we wish it otherwise, existing SRI funds have struggled to keep pace with the wider market. Compared to our low-cost indexing strategy, SRI funds are more expensive, have historically underperformed, and are not well diversified.  We support SRI, but want our members to be cognizant of the tradeoffs.

  1. SRI funds are typically actively-managed funds, and thus are more expensive.

    Actively-managed funds need to hire a Portfolio Manager to screen their investments, and the fund tends to buy and sell securities fairly often.  Thus we are paying for that additional labor and “skill” in stock-picking, as well as transaction costs. SRI funds will actively modify which companies meet specific environmental, social, and governance criteria.  This is in contrast to passive index funds, which have a lower cost because they just buy and hold the vast majority of a given broad market index (e.g. the S&P 500).

    While a low-cost index fund will typically charge only 0.18% in fees, most SRI funds charge 1% to 2% in fees.  This is not a small matter. If you invested $10,000 for your retirement, you would pay less than $500 in fees over 10 years in a low-cost index fund. But if you have placed it in an SRI fund charging 1.5%, you would have paid $4,500 in fees!  Note that this isn’t just a feature of SRI funds. Many actively-managed funds have similarly high fees.  Don’t believe us? Check out your 401k options.

  2. SRI funds have historically underperformed.

    While Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index Fund would have given you a 10-year annualized return of 3.6%, you would only have gotten 0.9% from its FTSE Social Index FundCalvert’s Social Index Fund also underperforms, returning only 0.6% to its investors over the same period.  Both social index funds also underperform in the one, three, and five year return measurements.  Vanguard’s Total International Stock Index Fund returned a decent 6.4% over the past 10 years, while Calvert’s International Equity Fund provided an underwhelming 1.1% over the same time period.  Calvert’s SRI bond portfolio similarly underperforms compared to a low-cost bond market index fund. That said, past performance is not a good indicator of future performance.

  3. SRI funds are not well diversified.

    Let’s assume that your primary purpose for investing is to save for retirement.  We typically recommend that Community Ladders’ members gain exposure to a broad swath of the stock market, generally through low-cost index funds.  Thus, the natural starting point for investing in a diversified portfolio of companies is a broad market portfolio (like the S&P 500) or a lifecycle fund.  These will include companies from every industry.  By screening out companies, as SRI funds do, the investable universe becomes smaller.  This can lead to either over- or under-performance, but concentrating in some industries while excluding others increases the inherent risk in your investment.

    After conducting negative screens (which tend to screen out extractive industries, pharmaceuticals, and gambling and liquor companies), most SRI funds tend to be heavily weighted towards the financial and information technology sector. The recent financial crisis offers clear evidence of the risks involved in overweighting one sector while excluding others.

  4. SRI funds may invest in unstable companies.

    For example, one can invest in Calvert’s Global Alternative Energy Fund. Personally, I think it’s really exciting to be promoting companies that are investing in solar, wind and all the good stuff needed to reduce our reliance on foreign oil and combat climate change. But companies in the alternative energy sector face cut-throat competition, with many of them failing as new technology evolves faster than they can raise money and adapt. Partly because of this, Calvert’s Alternative Energy Fund lost 26% of its value over the past three years.

The concerns we list here are real and important, but they are not a call to abandon SRI investments. We are mainly concerned with making sure that members are making an informed choice about SRI; this includes both the awesome, and the decidedly not-so-awesome, parts.

Sep 24 11

Alternative Approaches to Socially Responsible Investing

by Alvin Carlos

We share our members’ enthusiasm for socially responsible investments, but it does clash with our long-term, low-cost indexing strategy. We are not shy about airing our concerns about SRI options, because we want our members to be fully informed. In support of those wishing to pursue SRI, over the last six weeks our finance team has been hard at work screening available SRI options and coming up with a list of our favorites. We can now, one-on-one, offer specific investment advice for those interested in SRI.   We don’t discuss specific investment options publically because the appropriateness of an investment depends on individual circumstances.

For members not completely comfortable with moving to SRI, we offer some of the ways we’ve seen members think about alternatives to SRI investing :

  1. Consumer dollars count far more than investment dollars

    Long-term, stock price is far less sensitive to pressure from an average individual investor than it is to an individual consumer. For instance, your investment in a massive index fund that holds 1% of its shares in Exxon means that you often effectively own just a fraction of one share of Exxon. By contrast, by refraining from using Exxon stations, you are withholding revenue from its wholesale business that is orders of magnitude higher than your fractional share held in the index mutual fund. If you want to vote with your wallet, you get far greater bang for your buck by directing your consumer dollar than your investing dollar.

    Consumer dollars also offer a clear signal to companies about what kinds of products or behaviors the marketplace is demanding. This can range from the fair trade coffee that you buy from Peruvian farmers, or your continued boycott of Nestle products because of their promotion of breastmilk substitutes in poor countries. Every corporate management team is on the hook to increase revenue and return value to shareholders.  As the demand for environmentally safe, ethically-produced products increase, corporate management teams will actively start to incorporate such offerings.

  2. My financial goals need not be subordinate to my aspirations as a good global citizen.

    Unless you have truly sizable investing assets, your SRI investment is a stand on principle rather than an action with practical consequences as a market signal. While historically the performance gap between broad indexes and SRI funds has been narrow but significant, SRI funds’ overweighed exposure to financial firms means current performance is likely to lag even further. One has to weigh this higher risk and lower performance against the principle behind SRI.

  3. I will invest only a certain portion of my portfolio in SRI funds, as a compromise between achieving my financial goals and being a responsible investor.

    We often see 401k and TSP accounts with investment dollars split evenly between available choices. In the absence of good information, one’s instinct is to hedge bets and spread the money around. In effect, members who invest only a portion of their portfolio in SRI are exhibiting similar behavior.  This isn’t the most appealing strategy from our point of view, but it is actually quite popular among our members (especially those that don’t have SRI options in their 401k).

  4. I will offset the non-SRI component of my investments by donating to a charity.

    This is equivalent to flying to Paris and back for a summer vacation, and offsetting your carbon emissions by donating to a reforestation project. This has great appeal in theory, but in practice it is quite complicated to estimate the portion of your investment profits coming from irresponsible companies. When members have pursued this strategy, we often just take a ballpark estimate (like 5% of investment gains) and are content with that. The beauty of using this method is that you don’t suffer reduced investment gains in your tax-advantaged retirement accounts (because you are using broad-market investments instead of SRI) and the donations are done with funds external to these retirement accounts.

Ultimately, the choice is yours. The very fact that you’re thinking about these issues demonstrates that you are a concerned citizen. At Community Ladders, we are here to help you make an informed decision, and to support you in whatever decision you make.  We will continue to monitor SRI fund offerings as the sector develops, and will alert members personally of better SRI options.

Sep 21 11

Home Buying Workshop Sept 21, 6:30 PM

by Bill Varettoni

I had a fascinating conversation with Ati, who is running this workshop, about various government programs for home buyers in D.C.  I’d definitely recommend checking out the class tonight – RSVP to reserve your space.

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Join us on Wednesday, 21 September, for our “Making Smart Choices Home Buyer Workshop.”

Buying a home is one of the biggest financial decisions of your life and the process can be overwhelming.  There are some many things to learn:  the different mortgage products available, the pros/cons of renting versus buying, how to qualify for the various government assistance programs.

Let the seasoned experts at District Home Buzz walk you through the process from start to finish.  We guarantee you’ll walk away from our class as a better, more-educated home buyer.

Class date/time:

Wednesday, September 21st:  6:30 PM

All of our classes are free and open to the public.  However, space is limited so please contact Rob (rob@districthomebuzz.com) to reserve your seat today.  Seats will be reserved on a first-come, first-served basis. Free light snacks and refreshments will be served.

Our classes are held in the Shaw neighborhood public library in NW DC.  The library is located at 1630 7th St NWand is Metro accessible.  We’ll be meeting in the conference room on the lower level of the library.